The 2016 ABS Census contain little good news for Christianity. But there are also hints as to what can be done and even a few snippets of encouragement.
Are we led by God or are we led data? That is a question I often face as a strategist for religious organisations. The stakes raise when we start talking about measurement in the same sentence as church – it can leave us squirming and ready to throw the ‘only God knows’ line in response to any challenge. Data is indeed a tool which looks back and measures. What is often forgotten however is its overriding purpose to provide insight to drive us forward.
For that reason, the answer is both. Just as we prayerfully plan targeted church events and appoint the rightly skilled staff, we should also use data and insight in smart, strategic and prayerful ways. We can learn from what succeeds and what fails and make the best decisions for the future. We can then trust in God to do the rest.
In the last month we have seen the epitome of data releases, the 2016 ABS Census results. This can leave us in a cold sweat as there appeared little good news for Christianity. The total number of declared Christians dropped by 950,000 to 12.2 million. This saw the Christian percentage fall from 61.1% to 52.2% of the population. A wafer thin majority. But within the turmoil there are hints as to what can be done to reverse these trends and even a few snippets of encouragement.
We must firstly understand the context. The critical question the Census asked was “what is the person’s [your] religion?”. It is clearly tied to self-identification, not necessarily participation. It must also be noted that since the last census the “No Religion” option moved from last to first on the census form. This, along with campaigning by “No Religion” groups and a general census pessimism, would have placed downward pressure on the Christian percentage. Nonetheless, it is fair to say the decrease is largely due to a secularisation in Australia. The movement away from traditional religion is picking up pace.
While Christianity has fallen, immigration has meant Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism have all increased in the last five years. However, the main recipient of the Christianity fall is of course the No Religion group, now at 30.1% of the population. It is important to recognise this No Religion group is not a hard-line atheist group. The recent ‘Faith and Belief in Australia’ report (a survey conducted by McCrindle) revealed that 9% of the national population have undefined worldviews or beliefs. A further 14% of the national population are “spiritual but not religious” with views ranging from there being an ultimate purpose to inward self-discovery. The church should look to engage in different ways with this diverse group. This could be by connecting with spiritual journeys in less formal ways or contextual apologetics for those leaning more to “evidence based” decisions. Demonstrating relevance is the key.
Interestingly these movements are against international trends, as Conrad Hackett of the Pew Research Centre noted on his recent visit. As global population growth moves East the counts of Christians will increase. Muslims will increase even faster thanks to a very high fertility rate. If current trends continue (they of course may not) Islam will surpass Christianity around the year 2060 to become the world’s largest religion.
Being an increasingly multi-cultural society, ethnicity in Australia has a significant impact on the evolving religious landscape. In the last five years Hinduism has risen from 276,000 to 440,000 (with 120,000 new migrants) and Islam from 476,000 to 604,000 (with 119,000 new migrants). As with global trends, Muslim fertility towers above the rest of Australian and Christian rate (approximately 50% above average).
Ethnicity likewise impacts Christianity rates. 24.3% of Christians in Australia are born abroad (10 years ago it was 21.9%). In the last five years there have been an additional 52,000 Filipino-born Christians added to the population (93% of the 232,000 Filipino population in Australia are Christian). There has also been an additional 17,000 Christians from India.
The chart below isolates the key drivers of changing Christianity, separating by place of birth, along with the impacts driven by population (births, deaths, emigration), immigration (of those born abroad) and conversion (those changing their religion option between subsequent census iterations). This is a useful way of seeing the key levers of the changing Christian population.
What stands out is the massive increase in Australian-born residents who selected Christianity in 2011 but not in 2016 (Change via Conversion – 913,000 compared to 76,000 from the previous cycle). The same has occurred although to a lesser degree among those born abroad. This is the major concern for Christianity. Unlike the past, the birth of Christians no longer has a sizable impact over deaths and emigration.
Below we see this same information by year of birth. There is a clear peak in conversion from Christianity for those born between 1985 and 2000 (aged 16 to 31 in 2016). The conversion peaks for those born in 1994. Among the Australian-born sub-group over 35,000 (around 25%) drifted from Christianity between the ages of 17 and 22.
This drift away in the late teens and twenties has been observed over the course of history. The chart below shows the same pattern up to 5 years ago. However, it is the shear severity of the conversion in the last five years that is concerning. It is imperative for churches to find new and creative ways to engage with this age group – be it connecting with their less structured spiritual yearnings, increased social activism and more rigorous evidence requirements. The “Faith and Belief in Australia” research also shows Homosexuality and Church Abuse to be key barriers for connecting with Christianity. Engaging with these issues in inclusive ways is critical.
Of just as much concern is the conversion of those aged in their 30s to 60s which we did not see five years ago. There was a drop of 440,000 Australian born in this group whereas the previous five years saw almost no (net) drop at all. It appears Australia has seen a tipping point where Baby Boomers, and those a bit younger, have become comfortable no longer identifying as Christian.
The net impact of these dynamics remains an aging Christian population. 60% of current Christians were born before 1960 compared with 44% of the remaining population.
Men in particular have moved away. The 2016 National Church Life Survey reported 60% of church attenders were women. The Census results show a similar albeit less severe relationship with 53% of Christians being female. Less than half of all males are Christian at 49.5% with 32.1% having No Religion.
Among the Australian born 1991-96 male group just 45.6% are Christian. Males are dropping out of Christianity at a much faster rate than females suggesting the church is becoming increasingly female. This poses all sorts of problems. Creative men’s ministry is critical, be it in mental health, sports or (one of my favourite events) a ‘how to butcher a pig’ evening.
Geography is also important with Hobart establishing itself as the No Religion capital of Australia (40.5%). It has had the biggest decreases in Christianity in the last 5 years. The rest of Tasmania and Canberra/ACT follow close behind.
Capital areas are significantly less Christian than regional areas with Regional NSW still having the strongest Christian concentration (61.5%).
Deeper analysis of the census reveals areas where Christianity struggles especially among young people. These include Green Voting areas, those in de facto or same sex relationships and student areas. Each of these groups are their own community and the church must look to engage with these young people in targeted ways. Using census data at low geographic levels will help individual churches do this.
Within Christianity there has also been movements within the denominational mix as can be seen below.
The largest two denominations, Catholics and Anglicans, have suffered falls although of very different magnitudes. The Catholics have observed significantly fewer loses due to a younger population overall (higher births and fewer deaths) and a high immigration contribution (including 41,000 Catholics from the Philippines in the last 5 years). Most significantly the Catholic church has had much lower conversion of people across all ages (especially young adults) away from Catholicism. We cannot tell from the data if Anglicans have switched to other Christian options.
Pentecostals and Others (especially Other Protestant) have seen increases but most intriguing is the continued rise of Not Further Defined (often people claiming to be ‘just Christian’). This group is highly born abroad (35%) and younger than the overall Christian population. As can be seen below, this group has little net outgoing conversion among young people and is gaining from all age groups (be it from other denominations or those new to Christianity). This is a further indication of reduced preferences for traditional organised religion.
On a positive note Christianity has very high volunteer rates. It is hard to tell how much of this volunteering is done inside or outside of the church. The average rate is 23%, second to only Judaism and well above No Religion and the other major religions. Key for the church going forward will be mobilizing young volunteers in ways which both transform society while also allowing them to enhance their own strengths and passions. There are 415,000 young adults (aged between 15 and 30) who claim to be both Christian and Volunteers.
Volunteer rates clearly vary across denominations. Christian Brethren has a very high rate at 63.2% (the top segment by any variable) although the larger denominations do fall behind. This may be an indicator of active and passive Christianity (the lower volunteer rates of large denominations may be driven to some degree by more passive members).
Bringing this together, it can be seen a lot of soul searching is required. These findings barely scratch the surface of the insight the Census data holds, especially when it is combined with other research and data. Further value also lies in more localised studies. With these studies churches can understand in greater depth the issues relevant in their communities and respond with contextually appropriate and creative ventures. The major story however is the falling rates of Christianity especially among young people. It is not necessarily a movement to atheism but to a more fluid spirituality, free from the constraints of organised religion.
My hope is the insight from Census, and various other sources of research, will stimulate constructive conversation and deliberation within Christian community. But not just that, following it through with actions which will show the Christian message remains just as relevant now despite our fast-changing world. This will require creativity, innovation and perhaps even sacrifice. We all have a part to play in that.
