There’s a buzz among Christian thought leaders right now about what’s going on with Christianity in the West. New research and media headlines suggest the tide of secularism may be turning, with some countries reporting a rise in church attendance and increasing openness to Christianity, particularly among young people [3]. But what about in Australia?
Well, we’ve had headlines too. As a social scientist, I’ve seen time and again the profound power of reaching a simple population threshold for shaping public debate and thinking. In 2021, that debate-shaping threshold was that for the first time, less than half of the Australian population (43.9% to be exact!) identified as Christian on the Census. It was a major news story [2].
For those following the trend, though, it wasn’t a surprise. For various reasons, the proportion of the Australian population identifying as Christian has been in decline since at least the 1970s, and arguably, well before that. But what can we learn from this trend about openness to the gospel or apprenticeship to Jesus in Australia today? Well, surprisingly little. The census question simply asks, ‘What is the person’s religion’? New research shows that people that tick ‘Christian’ on the census form are more likely than others to do so on the basis of values and traditions, rather than actual beliefs and practice [8]. So, does this trend of decline represent a genuine drift away from faith in Christ in Australia or simply a decline in cultural Christianity? To answer this question, we need to dip beneath the headline. Below the surface, three important stories emerge.
Story 1: The Proportion of ‘Resilient Disciples’ is Likely Well Below 44%
Findings from a couple of nationally representative surveys deployed around the time of the 2021 Census (and since) collectively suggest that there’s probably a lot of cultural Christianity reflected in the census data, and this is primarily what is in decline [7, 8]. In fact, the data we have, which is by no means conclusive, suggests that the proportion of genuine apprentices of Jesus is probably much, much lower than 44%.
For example, in 2019 Barna conducted a global survey of the beliefs and practices of 18–35-year-olds who identified at the time, or some time prior, as Christians [1]. They found that only 8% of the Australian sample were what they called ‘resilient disciples’: people who believed and lived out the gospel. While this was only a survey of young people, data from other surveys on more general metrics of spiritual beliefs and practices collectively support a conclusion that 44% probably significantly inflates the rate of resilient discipleship [7, 8]. Therefore, it’s likely that we’ll see Christian identification on the census continue to decline for some time as more and more people in Australia respond to the census question on the basis of their actual beliefs and practices, rather than cultural heritage and values.
Story 2: Currents and Counter-Currents
While there are significant numbers of people moving away from identifying as Christian on the census, there are also important counter-currents of movement toward Christianity that have instructive implications.
A recent study by McCrindle that tracked individuals’ census responses over time found that between 2016 and 2021, an estimated 2.45 million people switched from identifying as Christian to having ‘no religion’ [8]. These are large numbers, but they are not uniformly spread across all types of ‘Christians’ [5]. The evidence presented in the McCrindle study suggests that in large part (though not entirely), this downward trend reflects a disillusionment with the church and Christian leaders on matters of integrity and accountability, as well as a perception that Christianity is no longer meaningful to their lives.
Importantly though, the study also found that over the same period, an estimated 784,400 people turned (or re-turned) from no religion to Christian on the census [9]. And as the report points out, it’s highly unlikely in our current cultural context that anyone drifted into this counter-current. In other words, those switching from ‘no religion’ to ‘Christian’ are most likely to be people that have had a genuine conversion experience and are committed followers of Christ.
Story 3: Many People in Australia are Spiritually Curious and Warm Toward Christianity
Contrary to what a lot of media headlines and public commentary might suggest, sentiment towards Christianity and Christians in Australia is generally positive. Recent national surveys have produced similar results: only a small proportion (usually around 10—15%) of people hold strong reservations about Christianity or are actively opposed to it [7, 8]. Many are open to the Christian faith, to spiritual conversations, and even to changing their religious views [4, 8]. And many (usually over one third) are open to being invited to church, especially by a close friend or family member [4, 6, 7].
The evidence also suggests that periods of major life change (entering young adulthood independence, relational breakdown, moving house, moving into retirement, and/or empty-nesting), are transitions that cause many people to reflect and reconsider their spiritual foundations [8]. These life-course crossroads represent important moments where communities of Christ-followers have particular opportunities to minister hope and truth.
Hope Beyond Statistics
So what are we to make of these stories? Four things.
First, declining cultural Christianity means that big social science datasets like the census are beginning to more accurately reflect the situation of actual spiritual life in our communities. This is a good thing. It gives Christian leaders a more accurate read on what people in Australia really believe and practice. One implication is that both inside and outside our churches, leaders cannot assume that people will have any accurate understanding of who Jesus is, what he has accomplished, or the ethics of his kingdom.
Second, while more people are checking ‘no religion’ on their census form, this does not necessarily mean they are hostile to the Christian faith, or Christians, or are disinterested in spiritual conversations. Nevertheless, scepticism about religious leaders and institutions in Australia is really high, and for good reason. This means it is perhaps now more important than ever that followers of Jesus in Australia don’t consciously or unconsciously offload the call of Christ to be salt and light to a ‘professional Christian.’ Should we be thankful for the many capable pastors, missionaries, local chaplains, and Christian thought leaders we have in this country? Absolutely! But these are not a substitute for the gospel witness of everyday Christians.
Third, we need to understand the purpose and limits of social science data. While they’re exceptionally helpful for gleaning key insights about our changing socio-cultural context, movement along a statistical dial should never be a source of ultimate discouragement or hope for followers of Jesus. Not just because the headline statistics often mask more complex realities, but because the Christian source of hope lies elsewhere: as adopted heirs of the great King who is building his church, regardless of what forces of darkness try to prevail against it, and who will one day bring his heavenly reign to bear across every corner of creation. Should Christian leaders be as informed and sober-minded about our present moment and surrounding culture as they can? Absolutely. But Jesus is the source of ultimate Christian hope whether Christianity is in vogue or not.
And lastly, I do think Christianity remains largely out of vogue in Australia. There is not (yet) widespread statistical evidence of revival, even a quiet one. But God is clearly still at work in Australia, drawing people of all ages and backgrounds to himself. Even a cursory look back through history shows that the gospel has often spread most beautifully and rapidly when followers of Jesus have recognised and embraced their exilic identities. The early church was in no doubt of its marginal and precarious status within the Roman Empire. Yet they laboured and loved and shared the good news of Jesus out of that clear knowledge. And God, by his Spirit, working through faithful followers of Jesus, transformed that empire and through it the world. The church in Australia is not a persecuted movement like the early church was. And yet we can take so much encouragement from their example of serving Jesus faithfully from the margins.
[1] Barna Group. 2019. ‘The Connected Generation: How Christian Leaders Around the World Can Strengthen Faith & Well-being Among 18-35-Year-Olds: Australia and New Zealand Report’, Report by the Barna Group.
[2] Mannheim, M. 2022. ‘Census 2021 data shows Australians are less religious and more culturally diverse than ever before’, Australian Broadcasting Corporation online news article. Available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-28/census-2021-data-shows-a-changed-australia/101177152?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web, Accessed 2/8/25.
[3] McAleer, R. and Barward-Symmons, R. 2025. ‘The Quiet Revival’, Bible Society UK, Swindon. Available at: https://www.biblesociety.org.uk/research/quiet-revival, Accessed 29/7/25.
[4] McCrindle, M and Renton, S. 2021. ‘Australia’s changing spiritual climate’, Report produced by McCrindle Research Pty Ltd. Available at: https://mccrindle.com.au/app/uploads/reports/Australias-Changing-Spiritual-Landscape-Report-2021.pdf Accessed, 29/7/25.
[5] NCLS. 2022a. “‘No Religion’ part of an ongoing trend, but not the whole story” NCLS Research Blog. Available at: https://www.ncls.org.au/articles/no-religion-part-of-ongoing-trend-but-not-whole-story/.
[6] NCLS. 2022b. ‘Gen Z’s Spiritual Patchwork” NCLS Research Blog. Available at: https://www.ncls.org.au/articles/gen-z-s-spiritual-patchwork/ Accessed 2/8/25.
[7] Powell, R. 2022. ‘Australians’ views of Jesus and the Church: comparing age groups in 2021’, Australian Community Survey Report, NCLS Occasional Paper 45.
[8] Wherret, S., Dusting, G., & McCrindle, M. 2025. “An Undercurrent of Faith: Exploring Australians’ renewed relationship with Christianity, McCrindle Research. Available at: https://cityinfield.com.
